The White House Plan to Re-Open

You can find it here.

Summary: Don’t re-open until your number of reported symptoms decreases for two weeks in a row. Don’t re-open until number of new confirmed infections decreases for two weeks in a row. Don’t re-open until hospital treatments can accommodate your current infection rate and you can test healthcare workers for anti-bodies.

This is a disaster waiting to happen.

As I mentioned other times, when you’re only plan for controlling the virus is isolation then removing that isolation will re-ignite the spread of the disease. Except now you have tens of thousands of carriers of the disease and what once took months to spread will now spread in weeks. Two weeks to be exact. That’s how long it takes between infection and hospitalization in most cases.

Lord, forgive them for they know not what they do.

The WH gives a long list of academic things-to-do but there is no practical approach to doing them. It reads like a list of goals. It is not a plan. You planners know what I’m talking about.

 

Protect the health and safety of workers in critical industries

Protect the health and safety of those living and working in high-risk facilities (e.g., senior care facilities)

Protect employees and users of mass transit

Advise citizens regarding protocols for social distancing and face coverings

Empty words. A sixth-grader can come up with a plan like that. More of the same, rinse, repeat.

And one item that irritates me is they use the wrong word throughout the document.

Sanitation is the hygienic disposal of waste. No one is talking about waste.

Sanitization is disinfection and sterilizing. This is what we are talking about.  Sheesh.

Well, I am underwhelmed by the talent and capabilities of those who serve the WH.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A Purpose for Testing

Harrumph.

It took me a while to cut through the baloney of “Let’s test so we know the lethality and the spread of the virus so we can make more informed decisions.” That may have had value two months ago when it came to the US, but that ship has now sailed. Every state has thousands (tens of thousands) of carriers in its population now.

The reasons for mass testing today comes down to this:

  1. a) if you love data and numbers and quantifying COVID-19, you want to make and to mine data for intellectual understanding. There are no decisions to be made about public health that have not already been made.
  2. b) if you love people, you want testing so you can isolate the concealed carriers to prevent spreading it to others AND so you can alleviate the fears in those who are worried they may have been exposed but were not.

There will always be more people infected in week two than in week one, and more in week three than in week two. It will continue until 50% of the population is infected or until a vaccine is deployed…which is the same as infecting the entire population with a weakened form of the virus. As long as there is freedom of movement, the infection will spread. You can’t stop the movement of people. You can change the speed of the spread but not the breadth of it. Changing speed is the purpose of isolation and quarantine.

Removing isolation and quarantine will arithmetically increase the rate of the spread because there are now tens of thousands of infected people walking around. It will be a pandemic on steroids. God help us.

We will all be infected. Eventually, the number of people infected will exceed those yet to be infected, and the spread of infection will become organic in society. Deaths will equal new infections at some point in time, and a balance in Nature will have occurred.

Just as millions of older adults died each year, from pneumonia before COVID-19, millions of people will die from COVID-19-induced pneumonia in the future. I am not making light of this and saying do nothing; I am saying that COVID-19 will be a much more lethal infection to fight in the elderly, and immune-system compromised people, but it will not go away.

Read the intelligent comments in this article. The author is wrong, but the comments are spot-on.